Three statisticians went out hunting, and came across a large deer. The first statistician fired, but missed, by a meter to the left. The second statistician fired, but also missed, by a meter to the right. The third statistician didn't fire, but shouted in triumph, "On the average we got it!"
Its been a while since I've done looked at averages. Now, I have to fully admit that my data is a merely a small slice of what Cryptic has available to them. Moreover, I would imagine that Cryptic has access to economists and statisticians if they need a consult. I've got Excel and no formal instruction in the field. But, hey, when has that stopped me? While I'll warn against looking too much into my numbers and charts, its still interesting to look at. But first, our normal compound view of things...
Nothing seems too out of the ordinary. The Z:D rate has been relatively flat, with little flux. A little boring, and undoubtedly frustrating if you're trying to buy low/sell high. Offers seem to be doing well, though, with a lot of volume on the market overall. Its still a fantastic market if you want to buy Zen with Dilithium, though. I'd like to see some more flux simply because its a bit low for my tastes; while its great for me as a Dilithium seller, I still like the higher 1:150 range or so as being a more equitable rate. While 1:237 would probably be the closest to fair (figured by (500-25)/2 and simply rounding), its a bit too frustrating a number in my opinion, and might discourage sale of Dilithium. Could be wrong, of course.
Fun with averages. I don't quite have a year's worth of tracking yet, but at this time we're selling below the average price. Granted, not much under! I must say we've come a long way since New Romulus released in November 2012, with its adjustments to the Dilithium economy (including exploit smashing).
People buying Zen with Dilithium is certainly a dynamic thing. The one thing that I find interesting, though, is if you look at the dual-chart, the volume of offers to buy Zen doesn't seem super tied that much to the Z:D ratio.
Same with people buying Dilithium, for that matter.
Now, for the more guessing-games here, but it seems the market is doing above average right now for trading. Of course, that's a moving target! Likewise, I have no idea what's going on behind the scenes at times, either. I would hope Cryptic has a good idea of who their audience is, plus combined with the game schedule? One could come up with a variety of reasons why the market behaves the way it does. Certainly, I wouldn't be surprised if spikes in the market early in the year are from Christmas spending money, tax returns, and more. What are your thoughts?
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